Munguva pfupi yapfuura, mamiriro ekutengeserana pasi rose akakanganiswa zvakanyanya nekuchinja kwemitero mitsva. United States yakagadzirira kuisa zviri pamutemo mitemo mitsva yemitero musi wa5 Gumiguru, ichiisa mimwe mitero ye15% - 40% pazvinhu zvinotumirwa Nyamavhuvhu 7 isati yasvika. Nyika dzakawanda dzakakosha dzekugadzira, kusanganisira South Korea, Japan, neVietnam, dziri muchikamu chekugadzirisa. Izvi zvakaparadza masisitimu ekuverenga mitengo akatangwa nemabhizinesi uye zvakakonzera kushamisika muchikamu chose, kubva pakutengeswa kwemidziyo yemumba senge mafiriji kusvika kumidziyo yekufambisa zvinhu mugungwa, zvichimanikidza makambani kuti agadzirise nekukurumidza mashandiro avo panguva yekudzivirira mutemo.
I. Makambani Ekutengesa Zvinhu Mufiriji: Kudzvanya Kaviri Kwemitengo Yakanyanya Kuwedzera Uye Kugadzirisa Marongero Ezvinhu
Sechikamu chinomiririra kutengeswa kwemidziyo yemumba, makambani efiriji ndiwo anotanga kutakura mutoro wemitengo. Makambani anobva kunyika dzakasiyana anotarisana nematambudziko akasiyana nekuda kwekusiyana kwemaitiro ekugadzira. Kune makambani ekuChina, United States yaisanganisira mafiriji pane runyorwa rwemitero yesimbi. Pamwe chete nemutengo we15% - 40% panguva ino, mutoro wemitero wakawedzera zvakanyanya. Muna 2024, kutengeswa kwefiriji nemafiriji neChina kuUnited States kwakasvika mabhiriyoni emadhora $3.16, zvichiita 17.3% yehuwandu hwese hwekutengesa kunze kwechikamu ichi. Kuwedzera kwemitero yegumi muzana yega yega kuchawedzera mari inodarika $300 miriyoni pagore yeindasitiri. Kuverengerwa nekambani inotungamira kunoratidza kuti kune firiji ine mikova yakawanda ine mutengo wekutumira kunze wemadhora $800, kana mutengo wemitero uchikwira kubva pa10% yekutanga kusvika pa25%, mutoro wemitero payuniti imwe neimwe unowedzera nemadhora $120, uye purofiti inoderedzwa kubva pa8% kusvika pasi pe3%.
Makambani ekuSouth Korea anosangana nedambudziko guru re "tariff inversion." Mutero wefiriji dzinogadzirwa muSouth Korea dzotumirwa kuUnited States neSamsung neLG wawedzera kusvika pa15%, asi mafekitori avo muVietnam, ayo anotora chikamu chikuru chekutengesa kunze kwenyika, anotarisana nemutengo wepamusoro we20%, zvichiita kuti zvisakwanise kudzivirira mitengo kuburikidza nekutumira simba rekugadzira munguva pfupi. Chinonyanya kunetsa ndechekuti zvikamu zvesimbi mumafiriji zvinowedzerwa mutengo we50% weSection 232. Mutoro wemitero miviri wakamanikidza kuwedzera kwe15% mumitengo yekutengesa yemamwe mafiriji epamusoro muUnited States, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwe8% pamwedzi kweodha kubva kumasupamaketi akaita seWalmart. Makambani emidziyo yepamba anotsigirwa neChina muVietnam anotarisana nekumanikidzwa kwakanyanya. Modhi yekutumira "yakagadzirwa muChina, yakanyorwa muVietnam" yakundikana zvachose nekuda kwemutero we40%. Makambani akadai seFujia Co., Ltd. aifanira kuwedzera chiyero chekutenga kwemafekitori avo ekuVietnam kubva pa30% kusvika pa60% kuti vasangane nemitemo yezvinodiwa zvekutanga.
Kugona kwemakambani madiki nepakati kuramba zvinhu kwanyanya kuderera. Imwe kambani yeIndian firiji OEM inonyanya kupa mabhizinesi ekuAmerica yakarasikirwa zvachose nemakwikwi ayo emitengo nekuda kwe40% yekuwedzera tariff rate. Yakagamuchira zviziviso zvekudzima maodha matatu anosvika 200,000 units, zvichiita 12% yehuwandu hwayo hwekugadzira pagore. Kunyangwe huwandu hwetariff yemabhizinesi ekuJapan huri 25% chete, pamwe chete nekuderera kwemutengo weyen, purofiti yekutengesera kunze kwenyika yakawedzera kudzikira. Panasonic yakaronga kutamisa chikamu chemari yayo yekugadzira firiji yepamusoro kuenda kuMexico kuti iwane zvinodiwa patariff.
II. Musika weZvikepe zveMaritime: Kuchinja-chinja kwesimba pakati peKuwedzera Kwenguva Pfupi neDzvinyiriro Dzenguva Refu
Kuchinjana kwe "kukurumidza - kufamba kwechikepe" uye "kumirira - uye - kuona nguva" kwakakonzerwa nemitemo yemitero kwakaisa musika wekutakura zvinhu mugungwa mukusagadzikana kwakanyanya. Kuti vavhare mwero wekare wemitero usati wasvika musi wa7 Nyamavhuvhu, makambani akaburitsa maodha zvakanyanya, zvichikonzera mamiriro ekuti "hapana nzvimbo iripo" panzira dzinoenda kumadokero kweUnited States. Makambani ekutakura zvinhu akadai seMatson neHapag - Lloyd akakwidza mitengo yekutakura zvinhu zvakatevedzana. Mari yekuwedzera yekontena ine mamita makumi mana yakakwira kusvika pamadhora zviuru zvitatu, uye mwero wekutakura zvinhu munzira kubva kuTianjin kuenda kumadokero kweUnited States wakawedzera neanopfuura 11% muvhiki imwe chete.
Pasi pekubudirira kwenguva pfupi uku, pane zvinhu zvakavanzika zviri kuitika. Maitiro emakambani ekutakura zvinhu ekuwedzera kwemitengo yekutakura zvinhu haana kugadzikana. Kana mitengo mitsva yatanga kushanda musi wa5 Gumiguru, musika uchapinda munguva yekutonhora kwekuda kwezvinhu. Chinese Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products inofanotaura kuti mushure mekuitwa kwemitemo mitsva, huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotakurwa munzira kubva kuChina kuenda kumadokero kweUnited States zvemidziyo yemumba huchaderera ne12% - 15%. Panguva iyoyo, makambani ekutakura zvinhu anogona kutarisana nenjodzi yekuwedzera kwemitengo yemidziyo isina chinhu uye kuderera kwemitengo yekutakura zvinhu.
Zvakanyanya kuipa, makambani ari kutanga kugadzirisa nzira dzavo dzekutakura zvinhu kuti vaderedze mitengo yemitero. Maodha ekutumira zvakananga kubva kuVietnam kuenda kuUnited States aderera, nepo kutakurwa kwemabhazi neMexico kwakawedzera ne20%, zvichimanikidza makambani ekutakura zvinhu kurongazve nzira dzavo dzekutakura zvinhu. Mari yekuwedzera yekuronga zvinhu ichapedzisira yapihwa kumakambani.
Kusaziva kuti zvinhu zvinofambiswa nenguva kunowedzera kunetseka kwemakambani. Mutemo uyu unoti zvinhu zvisina kuendeswa kumitero yemutero usati wasvika Gumiguru 5 zvichabvisirwa mutero, uye avhareji yekufamba kwemitero yemutero pazviteshi zvekumadokero kweUS yawedzerwa kubva pamazuva matatu kusvika pamazuva manomwe. Mamwe makambani atora nzira ye "kupatsanura magaba uye kusvika mumapoka," vachikamura maodha ese kuita magaba madiki akawanda ane mayuniti asingasviki makumi mashanu rimwe nerimwe. Kunyangwe izvi zvichiwedzera mari yekushanda kwemidziyo ne30%, zvinogona kuvandudza kushanda kwemitero yemutero uye kuderedza njodzi yekupotsa nguva yakatarwa.
III. Kutungamirwa Kwemaketani Eindasitiri Kwakazara: Maitiro Emaketani Kubva kuZvikamu Kuenda kuMusika weChiteshi
Kukanganiswa kwemitero kwapinda kupfuura nhanho yekugadzira zvigadzirwa zvakapedzwa uye kuri kuramba kuchipararira kumaindasitiri ari kumusoro neari pasi. Makambani anogadzira ma evaporator, chikamu chikuru chemafiriji, ndiwo akatanga kunzwa kumanikidzwa. Kuti vakwanise kugadzirisa 15% yekuwedzera yemitero, Sanhua Group yekuSouth Korea yakadzikisa mutengo wekutenga mapaipi emhangura nearuminiyamu ne5%, zvichimanikidza vatengesi vekuChina kuderedza mitengo kuburikidza nekutsiva zvinhu.
Makambani ecompressor muIndia ari mudambudziko guru: kutenga simbi yemuno kuti ienderane nemitemo yekwakabva zvinhu muUnited States kunowedzera mitengo ne12%; kana ikatengwa kubva kuChina, inotarisana nekumanikidzwa kwemitengo yezvikamu zviviri uye mitengo yezvikamu zvezvigadzirwa.
Kuchinja kwekudiwa kwezviwanikwa mumusika wezviteshi zvemagetsi kwave kuchinjana nekuchinja kwemitengo. Kuti vadzivise njodzi dzezvinhu zviri muzvitoro, vatengesi vekuUS vakapfupisa nguva yekutenga zvinhu kubva pamwedzi mitatu kusvika pamwedzi mumwe chete uye vanoda kuti makambani ave nekwaniso ye "kutumira zvinhu zvidiki nekukurumidza." Izvi zvakamanikidza makambani akaita seHaier kuti agadzire mawareji ane mabhondi muLos Angeles uye mafiriji ekare asati atengeswa. Kunyangwe mutengo wekuchengetedza zvinhu wakawedzera ne8%, nguva yekutumira zvinhu inogona kuderedzwa kubva pamazuva makumi mana nemashanu kusvika pamazuva manomwe. Mamwe mabhurendi madiki nepakati akasarudza kubuda mumusika weUS uye kuenda kunzvimbo dzine mitengo yakagadzikana, senge Europe neSoutheast Asia. Muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2025, kutengesa mafiriji eVietnam kuEurope kwakawedzera ne22% gore negore.
Kuoma kwemitemo iyi kwakonzerawo njodzi dzekutevedzera mitemo. Dare reUS Customs rakasimbisa kusimbiswa kwe "shanduko huru." Kambani yakawanikwa iine "mavambo enhema" nekuti fekitari yayo yekuVietnam yaingogadzira mubatanidzwa wakapfava uye zvikamu zvikuru zvakatorwa kubva kuChina. Nekuda kweizvozvo, zvinhu zvayo zvakatorwa, uye yakatarisana nefaindi yakapetwa katatu pane mutero. Izvi zvakaita kuti makambani aise mari yakawanda mukugadzira masisitimu ekutevedzera mitemo. Kune rimwe bhizinesi, mutengo wekuongorora zvitupa zvekwakabva chete wakawedzera ne1.5% yemari yayo yegore negore.
IV. Mhinduro dzeMabhizinesi Dzakawanda uye Kuvandudzwa kweUnyanzvi
Nenwell akataura kuti pasinei nedambudziko remitero, iri kuvaka zvipingamupinyi zvengozi - kudzivirira kuburikidza nekugadzirisa kugona kwekugadzira, kugadzirisa mitengo, uye kusiyanisa misika. Panyaya yekurongeka kwesimba rekugadzira, modhi ye "Southeast Asia + the Americas" ine hub mbiri iri kutora chimiro zvishoma nezvishoma. Tichitora michina yefiriji semuenzaniso, inoshandira musika weUS ne10% yemutengo wepamusoro uye, panguva imwe chete, inotsvaga kurapwa kwezero - mitero pasi peChibvumirano cheUnited States - Mexico - Canada, zvichideredza njodzi yekudyara zvinhu zvakagadziriswa ne60%.
Kuwedzera kudzora mitengo kuti zvinhu zvinake chinhu chakakoshawo. Nekuvandudza mashandiro ekugadzira, huwandu hwesimbi mumafiriji hwakaderedzwa kubva pa28% kusvika pa22%, zvichideredza huwandu hwemitero pamidziyo yesimbi. Lexy Electric yakawedzera mwero we automation wefekitori yayo yeVietnam, ichideredza mari yevashandi ne18% uye ichideredza kumanikidzwa kwemitero.
Maitiro ekusiyanisa misika akaratidza mhedzisiro yekutanga. Makambani anofanira kuwedzera kuedza kutsvaga misika muCentral neEastern Europe neSoutheast Asia. Muhafu yekutanga ya2025, kutengeswa kwezvinhu kuPoland kwakawedzera ne35%; makambani ekuSouth Korea akatarisana nemusika wepamusoro-soro. Nekupa mafiriji tekinoroji yehungwaru yekudzora tembiricha, vakawedzera nzvimbo yemutengo wepamusoro kusvika ku20%, vachivhara zvishoma mitengo yemitero. Masangano eindasitiri anoitawo basa rakakosha. Kuburikidza nemasevhisi akadai sekudzidziswa kwemitemo uye kuenzanisira maratidziro, China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products yakabatsira makambani anopfuura 200 kuwana mukana wekupinda mumusika weEU, zvichideredza kuvimba kwavo nemusika weUS.
Kugadziriswa kwemitero munyika dzakasiyana hakungoyedzi chete kugona kwemakambani kudzora mutengo asiwo kunoshanda semuedzo wekushushikana kwesimba recheni yepasi rose yekugovera. Nekuchinja kwakarongeka kuti zvienderane nemitemo mitsva yekutengeserana, sezvo nzvimbo yekutonga kwemitero ichiderera zvishoma nezvishoma, hunyanzvi hwetekinoroji, kushandira pamwe kwecheni yekugovera, uye kugona kwekushanda kwepasi rose zvichave makwikwi makuru emakambani ekufamba nemumhute yekutengeserana.
Nguva yekutumira: Gumiguru-21-2025 Maonero: