Muva nje, isimo sohwebo emhlabeni wonke siphazamiseke kakhulu ngomjikelezo omusha wokulungiswa kwentela. I-United States izosebenzisa ngokusemthethweni izinqubomgomo zentela ngo-Okthoba 5, ibeka imisebenzi eyengeziwe engu-15% - 40% ezimpahleni ezithunyelwe ngaphambi komhla ka-7 Agasti. Amazwe amaningi abalulekile akhiqizayo, okuhlanganisa iNingizimu Korea, Japan, neVietnam, afakiwe kububanzi bokulungisa. Lokhu kuphazamisile amasistimu okubalwa kwezindleko ezisunguliwe amabhizinisi futhi kwabangela ukushaqeka kulo lonke uchungechunge, kusukela ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe izinto zikagesi zasendlini njengeziqandisi kuya kwezokuthutha zasolwandle, okuphoqe izinkampani ukuthi zihlele kabusha ngokushesha izindlela zazo zokusebenza phakathi nenkathi yesivimbeli senqubomgomo.
I. Amabhizinisi Athekelisa Isiqandisi: Ukuminyanisa Kabili Kwezindleko Ezibukhali kanye Nokumiswa Kabusha Kwe-oda
Njengesigaba esimele ukuthunyelwa kwempahla yasendlini, amabhizinisi eziqandisi angawokuqala athwala umthwalo wemithelela yentela. Amabhizinisi avela emazweni ahlukene abhekana nezinselele ezihlukene ngenxa yomehluko ekuhlelweni kwamandla okukhiqiza. Kumabhizinisi aseShayina, i-United States ifake iziqandisi ohlwini lwentela oluphuma ensimbi. Uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lentela elengeziwe lika-15% - 40% kulokhu, umthwalo wentela ophelele ukhule kakhulu. Ngo-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kweziqandisi neziqandisi e-United States kwafinyelela ku-$3.16 billion, okuhlanganisa u-17.3% wesamba sevolumu yokuthekelisa yalesi sigaba. Njalo ngamaphesenti ayi-10 - ukukhuphuka kwamaphuzu entengo kuzokwengeza ngaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-300 zamaRandi ezindlekweni zonyaka zemboni. Izibalo zebhizinisi elihamba phambili zibonisa ukuthi esiqandisini esineminyango eminingi enenani lokuthekelisa lika-$800, lapho izinga lentengo likhuphuka lisuka ku-10% lasekuqaleni liya ku-25%, umthwalo wentela ngeyunithi ngayinye ukhuphuka ngo-$120, futhi umkhawulo wenzuzo uminyaniswa usuka ku-8% uya ngaphansi kuka-3%.
Amabhizinisi aseNingizimu Korea ahlangabezana nenkinga ekhethekile "ye-tariff inversion." Izinga lentela yeziqandisi ezikhiqizwa eNingizimu Korea futhi zithunyelwa e-United States ngabakwaSamsung kanye ne-LG senyukele ku-15%, kodwa izimboni zabo eVietnam, ezithatha ingxenye enkulu yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, zibhekene nenani eliphezulu lentela elingu-20%, okwenza kube nzima ukugwema izindleko ngokudluliswa kwamandla okukhiqiza esikhathini esifushane. Okukhathaza kakhulu ukuthi izingxenye zensimbi eziqandisini zingaphansi kwe-50% eyengeziwe ye-Section 232 tariff ekhethekile. Umthwalo wentela ombaxambili uphoqe ukuthi kukhuphuke ngo-15% amanani entengo entengo ephakeme - yamamodeli efriji ase-United States, okuholele ekwehleni kwenyanga engu-8% - ngenyanga - yehla yama-oda ezitolo ezinkulu njenge-Walmart. AmaShayina - amabhizinisi asebenza ekhaya axhaswa ngemali eVietnam abhekana nengcindezi enkulu nakakhulu. Imodeli yokuthutha "ekhiqizwe e-China, ebhalwe eVietnam" yehlulekile ngokuphelele ngenxa yezinga le-40% lokujezisa. Amabhizinisi afana ne-Fujia Co., Ltd. kuye kwadingeka ukuthi anyuse isilinganiso sokuthengwa kwempahla yendawo yamafekthri awo ase-Vietnamese ukusuka ku-30% ukuya ku-60% ukuze ahlangabezane nemithetho yezidingo zomsuka.
Ingozi - amandla okumelana amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo antekenteke kakhulu. I-OEM yesiqandisi saseNdiya ehlinzeka ikakhulukazi ngemikhiqizo yaseMelika esezindaweni eziningi isilahlekelwe ngokuphelele ukuncintisana kwentengo ngenxa yezinga le-40% elengeziwe lentela. Ithole izaziso zokukhansela ama-oda amathathu engqikithi yamayunithi angu-200,000, okubalelwa ku-12% womthamo wayo wokukhiqiza wonyaka. Nakuba izinga lentela lamabhizinisi ase-Japan lingama-25% kuphela, kuhlanganiswe nomthelela wokwehla kwenani le-yen, inzuzo yokuthekelisa iye yaguguleka nakakhulu. I-Panasonic ihlele ukudlulisa ingxenye yomthamo wayo wokukhiqiza isiqandisi esiphezulu eMexico ukuze ithole izintandokazi zentela.
II. Imakethe Yokuhamba Ngemikhumbi Yasolwandle: Ukushintshashintsha Okunodlame phakathi kweShort - Term Booms kanye Nezingcindezi Zesikhathi Eside
Ukushintshana "ukushesha - igagasi lokuthumela" kanye "nokulinda - futhi - ubone isikhathi" okubangelwa izinqubomgomo zentela kufake imakethe yemikhumbi yasolwandle ekuntengantengani okukhulu. Ukuvala inani lentela elidala ngaphambi komnqamulajuqu wokuthumela wango-Agasti 7, amabhizinisi akhiphe ama-oda ngamandla, okuholele esimweni “sokungabi khona kwendawo” emigwaqweni eya entshonalanga ye-United States. Izinkampani zemikhumbi ezifana noMatson noHapag - uLloyd ziye zawanyusa ngokulandelana amanani ezimpahla. Inkokhelo eyengeziwe yesiqukathi esingamamitha angu-40 ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-$3,000, futhi izinga lempahla emzileni osuka e-Tianjin uya entshonalanga ye-United States likhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-11% ngesonto elilodwa.
Ngaphansi kwalokhu kuchuma kwesikhathi esifushane kucasha ukukhathazeka okufihliwe. Imodeli yezinkampani zemikhumbi yokwenyuka kwamazinga omthwalo wempahla ayinakusimama. Uma amanani entengo amasha eqala ukusebenza ngo-Okthoba 5, imakethe izongena enkathini yokupholisa. I-China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products ibikezela ukuthi ngemva kokusetshenziswa kwezinqubomgomo ezintsha, umthamo wezimpahla ezithuthwa emizileni esuka e-China ukuya entshonalanga ye-United States ngezinto zikagesi zasendlini izokwehla ngo-12% - 15%. Ngaleso sikhathi, izinkampani zemikhumbi zingase zibhekane nezingozi zokukhuphuka kwamazinga ezikhala zezikhala kanye namazinga okwehla kwempahla.
Okubi nakakhulu, amabhizinisi aqala ukulungisa imizila yawo yezokuthutha ukuze ehlise izindleko zentela. Imiyalo eqondile yokuthunyelwa kwemikhumbi esuka eVietnam iya e-United States yehlile, kuyilapho ezokuthutha ezinqamula emngceleni zidlula eMexico zikhuphuke ngo-20%, okuphoqe izinkampani zemikhumbi ukuthi zihlele kabusha - zihlele amanethiwekhi azo emizila. Izindleko ezengeziwe zokuhlela zizodluliselwa emabhizinisini.
Ukungaqiniseki kokufika ngesikhathi kwezinhlelo zebhizinisi kubhebhethekisa ukukhathazeka kwamabhizinisi. Inqubomgomo ibeka ukuthi izimpahla ezingasuselwe intela ngaphambi komhla ka-5 Okthoba zizokhokhiswa intela kabusha, futhi umjikelezo wokugunyazwa kwempahla emaphakathi ezindaweni ezisentshonalanga ye-US unwetshiwe ukusuka ezinsukwini ezi-3 ukuya ezinsukwini eziyi-7. Amanye amabhizinisi asebenzise isu “lokuhlukanisa iziqukathi nokufika ngamaqoqo,” ukuhlukanisa iqoqo lonke lama-oda kuziqukathi eziningi ezincane ezinamayunithi angaphansi kuka-50 ngasinye. Nakuba lokhu kwandisa izindleko zokusebenza kwempahla ngo-30%, kungathuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kokukhipha intela futhi kunciphise nengozi yokuphuthelwa umnqamulajuqu.
III. Okugcwele - Ukuqhutshwa Kwe-Industry Chain: Ukusabela kwe-Chain kusuka ku-Components kuya eMakethe yeTheminali
Umthelela wezindleko usungene ngalé kwesigaba sokukhiqiza umkhiqizo ophelile futhi uyaqhubeka nokusabalala ezimbonini ezikhuphuka nomfula. Amabhizinisi akhiqiza ama-evaporator, ingxenye eyinhloko yeziqandisi, abe ngabokuqala ukuzwa ingcindezi. Ukuze ibhekane nentela eyengeziwe engu-15%, i-Sanhua Group yaseNingizimu Korea yehlise inani lokuthengwa kwamapayipi ayinhlanganisela yethusi - i-aluminium ngo-5%, okuphoqe abahlinzeki baseShayina ukuthi behlise izindleko ngokushintsha impahla.
Amabhizinisi e-Compressor e-India asenkingeni: ukuthenga insimbi yendawo ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nemithetho yezidingo zemvelaphi e-United States kunyusa izindleko ngo-12%; uma zingeniswa zivela eShayina, zibhekana nokuminyanisa okukabili kwezintengo zezingxenye kanye nezintengo zomkhiqizo - izinga lentengo.
Izinguquko ezidingekayo emakethe yetheminali zenze ukudluliselwa okubuyela emuva. Ukuze ugweme ubungozi be-inventory, abathengisi baseMelika bafinyeze umjikelezo we-oda kusukela ezinyangeni ezi-3 ukuya enyangeni engu-1 futhi badinga ukuthi amabhizinisi abe nekhono "lokulethwa kwenqwaba - okuncane, okusheshayo." Lokhu kuphoqe amabhizinisi afana no-Haier ukuthi asungule izindawo zokugcina izimpahla eziboshiwe e-Los Angeles kanye namamodeli esiqandisi abalulekile ngaphambi kwesikhathi. Nakuba izindleko zokugcinwa kwempahla zikhuphuke ngo-8%, isikhathi sokulethwa singancishiswa sisuka ezinsukwini ezingu-45 siye ezinsukwini ezingu-7. Amanye amabhrendi amancane naphakathi nendawo akhethe ukuhoxa emakethe yase-US futhi aphendukele ezifundeni ezinamatherifi azinzile, njenge-Europe kanye ne-Southeast Asia. Ngekota yesibili ka-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwesiqandisi saseVietnam eYurophu kukhuphuke ngo-22% ngonyaka - ngonyaka.
Ubunkimbinkimbi bezinqubomgomo buphinde bubangele ubungozi bokuthobela imithetho. I-US Customs iqinise ukuqinisekiswa "kwezinguquko ezinkulu." Ibhizinisi litholakale "inemvelaphi yamanga" ngoba imboni yayo yaseVietnam yenza ukuhlanganiswa okulula futhi izingxenye eziyinhloko zithathwe eShayina. Ngenxa yalokho, izimpahla zayo zashaqwa, futhi yabhekana nenhlawulo ephindwe kathathu kunenani lentengo. Lokhu sekwenze amabhizinisi ukuthi atshale izinsiza ezengeziwe ekusunguleni izinhlelo zokuthobela imithetho. Ebhizinisini elilodwa, izindleko zezitifiketi zokucwaningwa kwamabhuku zodwa zikhuphuke ngo-1.5% wemali engenayo yonyaka.
IV. Izimpendulo Zezinkampani Ezihlukahlukene kanye Nokwakhiwa Kabusha Kwekhono
UNenwell uthe lapho kubhekene nesivunguvungu sezindleko, idala ubungozi - izithiyo zokumelana nokulungiswa kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukuthuthukiswa kwezindleko, kanye nokuhlukahluka kwezimakethe. Mayelana nokuhlelwa kwamandla okukhiqiza, imodeli yehabhu ethi "Southeast Asia + the Americas" iqala kancane kancane. Ukuthatha imishini yesiqandisi njengesibonelo, isebenzela imakethe yase-US ngenani lentela elikhethwayo elingu-10% futhi, ngesikhathi esifanayo, ifuna ukwelashwa kwe-zero - tariff ngaphansi kwe-United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement, ukunciphisa ingozi yokutshalwa kwempahla ehleliwe - ngo-60%.
Ukujulisa ukulawulwa kwezindleko maqondana nokucwengwa nakho kuyisici esibalulekile. Ngokuthuthukisa inqubo yokukhiqiza, okuqukethwe kwensimbi eziqandisini kuye kwehliswa kusuka ku-28% kuya ku-22%, kunciphisa isisekelo sokukhokha intela kokuphuma kwensimbi. I-Lexy Electric inyuse izinga lokuzenzakalela kwefekthri yayo yaseVietnam, yehlisa izindleko zeyunithi yabasebenzi ngo-18% futhi yehlisa ingcindezi yentela.
Isu lokuhlukahluka kwezimakethe libonise imiphumela yokuqala. Amabhizinisi kufanele andise imizamo yokuhlola izimakethe Emaphakathi naseMpumalanga Yurophu naseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ePoland kukhuphuke ngo-35%; Amabhizinisi aseNingizimu Korea agxile emakethe ephezulu. Ngokuhlomisa iziqandisi ngobuchwepheshe bokulawula izinga lokushisa obuhlakaniphile, baye bandisa indawo yeprimiyamu yentengo yaba ngu-20%, bemboza kancane izindleko zentela. Izinhlangano zezimboni nazo zidlala indima ebalulekile. Ngezinsizakalo ezifana nokuqeqeshwa kwenqubomgomo kanye nokufanisa imibukiso, i-China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products isize amabhizinisi angaphezu kuka-200 ukuthi afinyelele imakethe ye-EU, enciphisa ukuncika kwawo emakethe yase-US.
Ukulungiswa kwentela emazweni ahlukene akuvivinyi kuphela izindleko zamabhizinisi – amandla okulawula kodwa futhi kusebenza njengokuhlolwa kwengcindezi kokuqina kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka emhlabeni wonke. Ngokwenza izinguquko ezihlelekile zokujwayela imithetho emisha yezohwebo, njengoba igumbi le-tariff arbitrage lincipha kancane kancane, ukusungulwa kwezinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe, ukubambisana kwe-supply chain, namandla okusebenza komhlaba ekugcineni kuzoba ukuncintisana okuyinhloko kwamabhizinisi ukuze azulazule phakathi nenkungu yezohwebo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Oct-21-2025 Ukubukwa: