Muva nje, isimo sokuhweba somhlaba wonke siphazamiseke kakhulu ngenxa yokushintshashintsha kwentela entsha. I-United States izimisele ukusebenzisa ngokusemthethweni izinqubomgomo ezintsha zentela ngo-Okthoba 5, ibeka intela eyengeziwe engu-15% - 40% ezimpahleni ezithunyelwe ngaphambi kuka-Agasti 7. Amazwe amaningi abalulekile okukhiqiza, okuhlanganisa iNingizimu Korea, iJapan, neVietnam, afakiwe ohlelweni lokulungisa. Lokhu kuphazamise izinhlelo zokubalwa kwezindleko ezisungulwe amabhizinisi futhi kwabangela ukushaqeka kulo lonke uchungechunge, kusukela ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe kwemishini yasekhaya njengeziqandisi kuya kwezokuthutha zasolwandle, okuphoqa izinkampani ukuthi zihlele kabusha ngokushesha izindlela zazo zokusebenza ngesikhathi sokulungiswa kwenqubomgomo.
I. Amabhizinisi Okuthumela Izinto Ezifrijini: Ukucindezela Kabili Kokwenyuka Kwezindleko Ezibukhali Nokulungiswa Kabusha Kwe-oda
Njengesigaba esimele ukuthunyelwa kwemishini yasekhaya, amabhizinisi esiqandisi yiwo okuqala ukuthwala umthwalo wemithelela yentela. Amabhizinisi avela emazweni ahlukene abhekene nezinselele ezahlukene ngenxa yokwehluka kwezakhiwo zamandla okukhiqiza. Kwamabhizinisi aseShayina, i-United States ifake amafriji ohlwini lwentela yensimbi ephumayo. Kuhlanganiswe nesilinganiso sentela esengeziwe esingu-15% - 40% kulokhu, umthwalo wentela ophelele ukhuphuke kakhulu. Ngo-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamafriji namafriji e-United States kufinyelele ku-$3.16 billion, okubalwa u-17.3% wenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwempahla lalesi sigaba. Njalo uma kukhuphuka ngamaphesenti ayi-10 entela kuzokwengeza ngaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-$300 ezindlekweni zonyaka zale mboni. Izibalo zebhizinisi elihamba phambili zibonisa ukuthi esiqandisini esineminyango eminingi esinentengo yokuthunyelwa kwempahla engu-$800, lapho izinga lentela likhuphuka lisuka ku-10% lasekuqaleni liya ku-25%, umthwalo wentela ngeyunithi ngayinye ukhuphuka ngo-$120, futhi inzuzo incishiswa isuka ku-8% iye ngaphansi kuka-3%.
Amabhizinisi aseNingizimu Korea abhekene nenkinga ekhethekile "yokuguqulwa kwentela." Izinga lentela lamafriji akhiqizwa eNingizimu Korea futhi athunyelwa e-United States yi-Samsung kanye ne-LG likhuphuke lafika ku-15%, kodwa amafektri abo eVietnam, athengisa isabelo esikhulu sokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, abhekene nezinga lentela eliphakeme lama-20%, okwenza kube nzima ukugwema izindleko ngokudluliselwa kwamandla okukhiqiza esikhathini esifushane. Okukhathaza kakhulu ukuthi izingxenye zensimbi ezifrijini zingaphansi kwentela ekhethekile engu-50% yeSigaba 232. Umthwalo wentela ophindwe kabili uphoqe ukwanda okungu-15% emananini okuthengisa kwamanye amamodeli amafriji aphezulu e-United States, okuholele ekwehleni kwama-oda ezitolo ezinkulu njenge-Walmart ngo-8% ngenyanga. Amabhizinisi emishini yasekhaya axhaswe yiShayina eVietnam abhekene nengcindezi enkulu nakakhulu. Imodeli yokudluliselwa "ekhiqizwe eShayina, enelebula eVietnam" yehlulekile ngokuphelele ngenxa yezinga lentela elijeziswayo elingu-40%. Amabhizinisi afana neFujia Co., Ltd. kudingeke andise isilinganiso sokuthengwa kwendawo kwamafektri awo aseVietnam kusuka ku-30% kuya ku-60% ukuze ahlangabezane nezidingo zemithetho yemvelaphi.
Amakhono obungozi - ukumelana kwamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo abuthakathaka kakhulu. I-OEM yesiqandisi saseNdiya ehlinzeka kakhulu ngemikhiqizo yaseMelika esezingeni eliphezulu ilahlekelwe ngokuphelele ukuncintisana kwayo ngentengo ngenxa yesilinganiso sentela esengeziwe esingu-40%. Ithole izaziso zokukhansela ama-oda amathathu afinyelela kumayunithi angu-200,000, ahlanganisa u-12% wamandla ayo okukhiqiza ngonyaka. Nakuba izinga lentela lamabhizinisi aseJapan lingu-25% kuphela, kuhlangene nomthelela wokwehla kwenani le-yen, inzuzo yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe iye yancipha kakhulu. I-Panasonic ihlele ukudlulisela ingxenye yamandla ayo okukhiqiza esiqandisini aphezulu eMexico ukuze ithole izinketho zentela.
II. Imakethe Yokuthunyelwa Kwemikhumbi Yasolwandle: Ukushintshashintsha Okunobudlova Phakathi Kokwanda Kwesikhathi Esifushane Nesikhathi Eside
Ukushintshana “kokuhamba ngokushesha” kanye “nokulinda – bese ubona isikhathi” okubangelwa yizinqubomgomo zentela kufake imakethe yemikhumbi yokuthutha emanzini esimweni esiguquguqukayo kakhulu. Ukuze kuvinjwe izinga lentela elidala ngaphambi kosuku lokugcina lokuthumela lwango-Agasti 7, amabhizinisi akhiphe ama-oda ngamandla, okwaholela esimweni “sokungabikho kwendawo etholakalayo” emizileni eya entshonalanga ye-United States. Izinkampani zemikhumbi ezifana neMatson kanye neHapag – Lloyd zikhuphule amazinga emithwalo ngokulandelana. Inkokhelo eyengeziwe yesitsha esingamamitha angu-40 ikhuphuke yafika ku-$3,000, kanti izinga lemithwalo emzileni osuka eTianjin uye entshonalanga ye-United States likhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-11% ngesonto elilodwa.
Ngaphansi kwalokhu kuchuma kwesikhathi esifushane kucashe ukukhathazeka okufihliwe. Imodeli yezinkampani zokuthumela izimpahla ekhuphuka kakhulu ayizinzile. Uma amanani amasha eqala ukusebenza ngomhlaka-5 Okthoba, imakethe izongena esikhathini sokuphola kwesidingo. I-China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products ibikezela ukuthi ngemuva kokusetshenziswa kwezinqubomgomo ezintsha, inani lezimpahla ezithuthwa emizileni esuka eShayina iye entshonalanga ye-United States zemishini yasekhaya lizokwehla ngo-12% - 15%. Ngaleso sikhathi, izinkampani zokuthumela izimpahla zingase zibhekane nezingozi zokwanda kwamanani okungabi nalutho kwamakhonteyina kanye nokwehla kwamanani okuthutha izimpahla.
Okubi nakakhulu, amabhizinisi aqala ukulungisa imizila yawo yezokuthutha ukuze anciphise izindleko zentela. Ama-oda okuthumela ngqo esuka eVietnam eya e-United States anciphile, kuyilapho ezokuthutha eziwela imingcele ngeMexico zikhuphuke ngo-20%, okuphoqa izinkampani zokuthumela ukuthi zihlele kabusha amanethiwekhi azo emizila. Izindleko ezengeziwe zokuhlela zizodluliselwa emabhizinisini ekugcineni.
Ukungaqiniseki kokufika ngesikhathi kwezinto zokuthutha kwandisa ukukhathazeka kwamabhizinisi. Le nqubomgomo ibeka ukuthi izimpahla ezingakasuswa ukuze zithunyelwe emasimini ngaphambi kuka-Okthoba 5 zizokhokhiswa intela emuva, futhi umjikelezo ojwayelekile wokususwa kwezinto zokuthutha emachwebeni asentshonalanga ye-US unwetshiwe kusukela ezinsukwini ezi-3 kuya ezinsukwini ezi-7. Amanye amabhizinisi amukele isu "lokuhlukanisa izitsha bese efika ngamaqoqo," ehlukanisa lonke iqoqo lama-oda libe izitsha eziningi ezincane ezinamayunithi angaphansi kwama-50 ngalinye. Nakuba lokhu kwandisa izindleko zokusebenza kwezinto zokuthutha ngo-30%, kungathuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kokususwa kwezinto zokuthutha futhi kunciphise ingozi yokuphuthelwa yisikhathi esibekiwe.
III. Ukuqhutshwa Kweketanga Lemboni Okugcwele: Ukusabela Kweketanga Okuvela Ezicini Kuya Emakethe Yesiphetho
Umthelela wentela udlule esigabeni sokukhiqizwa komkhiqizo oqediwe futhi uyaqhubeka nokusabalala ezimbonini eziphezulu nezingezansi. Amabhizinisi akhiqiza ama-evaporator, ingxenye eyinhloko yamafriji, abe ngawokuqala ukuzwa ingcindezi. Ukuze abhekane nentela eyengeziwe engu-15%, iSanhua Group yaseNingizimu Korea yehlise intengo yokuthenga amapayipi e-copper-aluminium ahlanganisiwe ngo-5%, okuphoqa abahlinzeki baseShayina ukuba banciphise izindleko ngokushintshanisa izinto.
Amabhizinisi e-compressor eNdiya asenkingeni: ukuthenga insimbi yendawo ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo zemithetho yokuvela kwayo e-United States kwandisa izindleko ngo-12%; uma zithengwa zivela eShayina, zibhekene nokucindezelwa okubili kwentela yezingxenye kanye nentela yezinga lomkhiqizo.
Izinguquko ekudingweni emakethe yezitolo ezinkulu zenze ukudluliselwa okuphambene. Ukuze kugwenywe izingozi zempahla, abathengisi base-US banciphise umjikelezo we-oda kusuka ezinyangeni ezi-3 kuya enyangeni eyi-1 futhi badinga amabhizinisi ukuba abe nekhono "lokulethwa okuncane, okusheshayo." Lokhu kuphoqe amabhizinisi afana neHaier ukuthi asungule izindawo zokugcina impahla eziboshiwe eLos Angeles kanye namamodeli esiqandisi esiyinhloko esitolo kusengaphambili. Nakuba izindleko zokugcina impahla zikhuphuke ngo-8%, isikhathi sokulethwa singancishiswa kusuka ezinsukwini ezingama-45 kuya ezinsukwini ezi-7. Amanye amabhrendi amancane naphakathi nendawo akhethe ukuhoxa emakethe yase-US futhi aphendukele ezifundeni ezinezintela ezizinzile, njengeYurophu neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Engxenyeni yesibili ka-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwefriji yaseVietnam eYurophu kukhuphuke ngo-22% unyaka nonyaka.
Ubunzima bezinqubomgomo buveze nezingozi zokuthobela imithetho. I-US Customs iqinise ukuqinisekiswa "kokuguqulwa okukhulu." Ibhizinisi litholakale "linemvelaphi engamanga" ngoba imboni yalo yaseVietnam yenze ukuhlanganiswa okulula kuphela kanti izingxenye eziyinhloko zithathwe eShayina. Ngenxa yalokho, izimpahla zalo zathathwa, futhi labhekana nenhlawulo ephindwe kathathu kunenani lentela. Lokhu kushukumisele amabhizinisi ukuthi atshale izinsiza ezengeziwe ekusunguleni izinhlelo zokuthobela imithetho. Kwelinye ibhizinisi, izindleko zokuhlola izitifiketi zokuqala zodwa zikhuphuke ngo-1.5% wemali engenayo yalo yonyaka.
IV. Izimpendulo Eziningi Zezinkampani kanye Nokwakhiwa Kabusha Kwamakhono
UNenwell uthe ngenxa yesiphepho sentela, yakha izithiyo zobungozi - ukumelana ngokulungiswa kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukwenza ngcono izindleko, kanye nokwehlukahluka kwemakethe. Ngokuphathelene nokwakheka kwamandla okukhiqiza, imodeli ye-"Southeast Asia + the Americas" yezindawo ezimbili iqala ukuma kancane kancane. Uma sibheka imishini yesiqandisi njengesibonelo, ikhonza imakethe yase-US ngesilinganiso sentela esikhethwayo esingu-10% futhi, ngesikhathi esifanayo, ifuna ukuphathwa kwentela engu-zero - ngaphansi kweSivumelwano sase-United States - Mexico - Canada, okunciphisa ingozi yokutshalwa kwezimali kwempahla okuzinzile ngo-60%.
Ukujulisa ukulawula izindleko ukuze kuthuthukiswe nakho kuyisici esibalulekile. Ngokwenza ngcono inqubo yokukhiqiza, okuqukethwe kwensimbi eziqandisini kuncishisiwe kusuka ku-28% kuya ku-22%, kunciphisa isisekelo sokukhokha intela ezintweni ezisuselwe ensimbini. I-Lexy Electric inyuse izinga lokuzenzakalela kwefektri yayo yaseVietnam, yanciphisa izindleko zomsebenzi weyunithi ngo-18% futhi yanciphisa okunye kokucindezela kwentela.
Isu lokwehlukahlukana kwemakethe libonise imiphumela yokuqala. Amabhizinisi kufanele andise imizamo yokuhlola izimakethe e-Central and Eastern Europe kanye naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ePoland kukhuphuke ngo-35%; amabhizinisi aseNingizimu Korea agxile emakethe ephezulu. Ngokuhlomisa amafriji ngobuchwepheshe bokulawula izinga lokushisa obuhlakaniphile, anyuse isikhala sentengo ephezulu saya ku-20%, ehlanganisa kancane izindleko zentela. Izinhlangano zezimboni nazo zidlala indima ebalulekile. Ngezinsizakalo ezifana nokuqeqeshwa kwenqubomgomo kanye nokwenza imiboniso, i-China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products isize amabhizinisi angaphezu kuka-200 ukuthi afinyelele emakethe ye-EU, okunciphisa ukuthembela kwawo emakethe yase-US.
Ukulungiswa kwentela emazweni ahlukene akuvivinyi nje kuphela amakhono okulawula izindleko zamabhizinisi kodwa futhi kusebenza njengesivivinyo sokucindezeleka sokuqina kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngomhlaba wonke. Ngokubhekana nezinguquko ezihlelekile zokuzivumelanisa nemithetho emisha yokuhweba, njengoba isikhala se-arbitrage yentela sincipha kancane kancane, ukusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe, ukubambisana kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngokuthenga, kanye namakhono okusebenza komhlaba wonke ekugcineni kuzoba ukuncintisana okuyinhloko kwamabhizinisi ukuze adlule enkingeni yokuhweba.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Okthoba-21-2025 Ukubukwa: