Posachedwapa, malo amalonda apadziko lonse asokonezedwa kwambiri ndi kusintha kwatsopano kwa tariff. Dziko la United States lakhazikitsidwa kuti likhazikitse mwalamulo ndondomeko zatsopano za msonkho pa October 5, ndikuyika ntchito zowonjezera za 15% - 40% pa katundu wotumizidwa pamaso pa August 7. Mayiko ambiri opangira zinthu, kuphatikizapo South Korea, Japan, ndi Vietnam, akuphatikizidwa muzosintha. Izi zasokoneza mabizinesi omwe adakhazikitsa njira zowerengera ndalama ndikuyambitsa chipwirikiti pagulu lonse, kuyambira kutumizidwa kunja kwa zida zapanyumba monga mafiriji kupita kuzinthu zapanyanja, kukakamiza makampani kukonzanso mwachangu malingaliro awo ogwirira ntchito munthawi yachitetezo.
I. Refrigerator Export Enterprises: Finyani Kawiri kwa Kukwera Kwambiri Mtengo ndi Kukonzanso Kukonzekera
Monga gulu loyimilira lazinthu zotumizira kunja, mabizinesi afiriji ndi omwe amakhala oyamba kutengera zovuta zamitengo. Mabizinesi ochokera kumayiko osiyanasiyana amakumana ndi zovuta zosiyanasiyana chifukwa cha kusiyana kwa masanjidwe a mphamvu zopangira. Kwa mabizinesi aku China, United States yaphatikiza mafiriji pamndandanda wamitengo yotengera zitsulo. Kuphatikizidwa ndi 15% - 40% mtengo wamtengo wapatali nthawi ino, msonkho wathunthu wawonjezeka kwambiri. Mu 2024, mafiriji ndi mafiriji aku China omwe adatumiza kunja ku United States adakwana $3.16 biliyoni, zomwe zidapangitsa 17.3% ya kuchuluka kwazinthu zonse zomwe zidatumizidwa mgululi. Pafupifupi 10 - peresenti - kuwonjezeka kwamitengo kumawonjezera $ 300 miliyoni pamtengo wapachaka wamakampani. Zowerengera zamakampani otsogola zikuwonetsa kuti pafiriji yazitseko zambiri yokhala ndi mtengo wotumizira kunja kwa $ 800, pomwe mtengo wamitengo ukukwera kuchokera ku 10% mpaka 25%, msonkho wapagawo umakwera ndi $ 120, ndipo phindu la phindu limafinyidwa kuchokera ku 8% mpaka pansi pa 3%.
Mabizinesi aku South Korea akukumana ndi vuto la "tariff inversion". Mtengo wamafiriji opangidwa ku South Korea ndikutumizidwa ku United States ndi Samsung ndi LG wakwera mpaka 15%, koma mafakitale awo ku Vietnam, omwe amapanga gawo lalikulu la zogulitsa kunja, amayang'anizana ndi kuchuluka kwamitengo ya 20%, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zosatheka kupeŵa ndalama pogwiritsa ntchito kusamutsa mphamvu zopanga pakanthawi kochepa. Chomwe chimakhala chovuta kwambiri ndikuti zida zachitsulo mufiriji zimangowonjezera 50% Gawo 232 mtengo wapadera. Misonkho iwiri yapawiri yakakamiza kukwera kwamitengo ya 15% yamitundu ina yapamwamba - yomaliza ya firiji ku United States, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mwezi wa 8% - pa - mwezi uchepe m'maoda ochokera kumisika yayikulu ngati Walmart. Mabizinesi aku China - omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama zapanyumba ku Vietnam amakumana ndi mavuto akulu. Mtundu wa transshipment wa "opangidwa ku China, wolembedwa ku Vietnam" walephera kwathunthu chifukwa cha 40% ya tariff. Mabizinesi monga Fujia Co., Ltd. awonjezera kuchuluka kwa zogula zakomweko kumafakitale awo aku Vietnam kuchokera pa 30% mpaka 60% kuti akwaniritse malamulo oyambira.
Chiwopsezo - kukana mphamvu zamabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi apakatikati ndizovuta kwambiri. Firiji ya ku India OEM yomwe ikupereka mitundu yambiri yaku America yataya mpikisano wake wamitengo chifukwa cha 40% yowonjezereka yamitengo. Idalandira zidziwitso zoyimitsa maoda atatu okwana 200,000, zomwe zimawerengera 12% yazopanga zake pachaka. Ngakhale mitengo yamitengo yamabizinesi aku Japan ndi 25% yokha, kuphatikiza ndi kutsika kwa mtengo wa yen, phindu logulitsa kunja kwawonongekanso. Panasonic yakonza kusamutsa gawo lake lapamwamba - lomaliza kupanga firiji kupita ku Mexico kuti ipeze zomwe amakonda.
II. Msika Wotumiza Panyanja: Kusinthasintha Kwachiwawa Pakati pa Short - Term Booms ndi Long - Term Pressures
Kusinthana kwa "kuthamanga - mafunde" ndi "kudikirira - ndikuwona nthawi" zoyambitsidwa ndi ndondomeko zamitengo zapangitsa msika wapanyanja kukhala wosakhazikika. Kuti atseke chiwongola dzanja chakale chisanafike tsiku lomaliza la Ogasiti 7, mabizinesi adatulutsa maoda mwamphamvu, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti "palibe malo" panjira zopita kumadzulo kwa United States. Makampani otumizira monga Matson ndi Hapag - Lloyd akweza mitengo yonyamula katundu motsatizana. Ndalama zowonjezera pa chidebe cha 40 - phazi lakwera kufika pa $ 3,000, ndipo mtengo wa katundu panjira yochokera ku Tianjin kupita kumadzulo kwa United States wawonjezeka ndi 11% pa sabata limodzi.
Pansi pa chitukuko chachifupi ichi chimakhala ndi nkhawa zobisika. Kukwera kwamitengo yamakampani onyamula katundu ndikosakhazikika. Misonkho yatsopano ikayamba kugwira ntchito pa Okutobala 5, msika ulowa nthawi yoziziritsa. Bungwe la China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products likulosera kuti pambuyo pa kukhazikitsidwa kwa ndondomeko zatsopano, kuchuluka kwa katundu wotumizidwa panjira kuchokera ku China kupita kumadzulo kwa United States kwa zipangizo zapakhomo kudzatsika ndi 12% - 15%. Pofika nthawi imeneyo, makampani oyendetsa sitima amatha kuyang'anizana ndi ziwopsezo zakuchulukira kwa ntchito zonyamula katundu komanso kutsika kwamitengo yonyamula katundu.
Zowopsa kwambiri, mabizinesi akuyamba kusintha njira zawo zoyendetsera zinthu kuti achepetse mtengo wamitengo. Malamulo otumiza mwachindunji kuchokera ku Vietnam kupita ku United States achepa, pomwe mayendedwe odutsa malire kudzera ku Mexico awonjezeka ndi 20%, zomwe zikukakamiza makampani oyendetsa sitima kuti akonzenso maukonde awo. Ndalama zowonjezera zokonzekera zidzaperekedwa kwa mabizinesi.
Kukayikakayika kwa nthawi yoyendetsera zinthu kumawonjezera nkhawa zamabizinesi. Ndondomekoyi ikunena kuti katundu yemwe sanachotsedwe pa kasitomu pasanafike pa Okutobala 5 adzakhomeredwa msonkho mobwerezabwereza, ndipo kuchuluka kwamayendedwe ovomerezeka kumadoko akumadzulo kwa US kwawonjezedwa kuyambira masiku atatu mpaka 7 masiku. Mabizinesi ena atengera njira "yogawikana zotengera ndikufika m'magulu," kugawa maoda athunthu m'matumba ang'onoang'ono angapo okhala ndi mayunitsi osakwana 50 chilichonse. Ngakhale izi zimakulitsa mtengo wazinthu zogwirira ntchito ndi 30%, zitha kupititsa patsogolo magwiridwe antchito ndikuchepetsa chiwopsezo chosowa tsiku lomaliza.
III. Kayendetsedwe ka Chain - Chain Chain: Zochita za Chain kuchokera ku Zigawo kupita ku Msika wa Terminal
Zotsatira zamitengo zadutsa kupyola nthawi yopangira zinthu zomwe zamalizidwa ndipo zikupitilira kufalikira kumakampani akumtunda ndi kumunsi. Mabizinesi opanga ma evaporator, omwe ndi gawo lalikulu la mafiriji, anali oyamba kumva kupanikizika. Kuti athane ndi 15% yowonjezereka, Gulu la Sanhua la South Korea latsitsa mtengo wogula wa mapaipi amkuwa - aluminiyamu ndi 5%, kukakamiza ogulitsa aku China kuti achepetse ndalama kudzera m'malo mwa zinthu.
Mabizinesi a Compressor ku India ali m'mavuto: kugula zitsulo zam'deralo kuti zikwaniritse zofunikira zoyambira ku United States kumawonjezera ndalama ndi 12%; ngati atumizidwa kuchokera ku China, amayang'anizana ndi kufinyidwa kwapawiri kwa mitengo yazigawo ndi mitengo yazinthu - kuchuluka kwamitengo.
Kusintha kwa kufunikira kwa msika wama terminal kwapanga njira yosinthira. Pofuna kupewa kuopsa kwa zinthu, ogulitsa aku US afupikitsa nthawi yoyitanitsa kuchokera ku miyezi itatu mpaka mwezi umodzi ndipo amafuna kuti mabizinesi azikhala ndi mwayi wopereka "kagulu kakang'ono, mwachangu." Izi zakakamiza mabizinesi ngati Haier kuti akhazikitse nyumba zosungiramo katundu ku Los Angeles ndi mitundu yosungiramo firiji pasadakhale. Ngakhale mtengo wosungiramo katundu wakwera ndi 8%, nthawi yobweretsera imatha kuchepetsedwa kuchokera masiku 45 mpaka 7. Mitundu ina yaying'ono ndi yapakatikati yasankha kuchoka pamsika waku US ndikutembenukira kumadera okhala ndi mitengo yokhazikika, monga Europe ndi Southeast Asia. Mu kotala yachiwiri ya 2025, firiji yaku Vietnam yotumiza ku Europe idakwera ndi 22% chaka - pa - chaka.
Kuvuta kwa ndondomekozi kwapangitsanso kuti pakhale zovuta zotsatiridwa. US Customs yalimbitsa kutsimikizira kwa "kusintha kwakukulu." Bizinesi idapezeka kuti ili ndi "zoyambira zabodza" chifukwa fakitale yake yaku Vietnamese idangochita msonkhano wosavuta ndipo zida zake zidachokera ku China. Zotsatira zake, katundu wake adagwidwa, ndipo adakumana ndi chindapusa kuwirikiza katatu kuchuluka kwa msonkhowo. Izi zapangitsa mabizinesi kuyika ndalama zambiri pokhazikitsa njira zotsatirira. Kwa bizinesi imodzi, mtengo wa ziphaso zowerengera zoyambira zokha wakwera ndi 1.5% ya ndalama zake pachaka.
IV. Mayankho a Multidimensional a Enterprises ndi Kukonzanso Kwamphamvu
Nenwell adanena kuti pakukumana ndi mphepo yamkuntho, ikupanga chiwopsezo - zolepheretsa kukana kudzera mukusintha mphamvu zopanga, kukhathamiritsa mtengo, komanso kusiyanasiyana kwamisika. Pankhani ya masanjidwe a mphamvu zopangira, "Southeast Asia + the Americas" yapawiri - hub model ikuyamba pang'onopang'ono. Kutenga zipangizo za firiji monga chitsanzo, zimagwiritsa ntchito msika wa US ndi 10% mtengo wamtengo wapatali wamtengo wapatali ndipo, panthawi imodzimodziyo, ikufuna chithandizo cha zero - mtengo wamtengo wapatali pansi pa United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement, kuchepetsa chiopsezo chokhazikika - ndalama zamtengo wapatali ndi 60%.
Kukulitsa kuwongolera kwamitengo yowongoleredwa nakonso ndikofunikira. Mwa kukhathamiritsa ntchito yopanga, zitsulo zomwe zili mufiriji zachepetsedwa kuchokera ku 28% mpaka 22%, kuchepetsa maziko olipira msonkho pazitsulo zochokera kuzitsulo. Lexy Electric yawonjezera kuchuluka kwa makina a fakitale yake yaku Vietnamese, kuchepetsa ndalama zogwirira ntchito ndi 18% ndikuchepetsa kukakamiza kwamitengo.
Njira yosinthira msika yawonetsa zotsatira zoyambirira. Mabizinesi akuyenera kuwonjezera kuyesetsa kufufuza misika ku Central ndi Eastern Europe ndi Southeast Asia. Mu theka loyamba la 2025, kutumiza kunja ku Poland kunakwera ndi 35%; Mabizinesi aku South Korea ayang'ana kwambiri msika wapamwamba kwambiri. Popanga mafiriji ndi ukadaulo wanzeru wowongolera kutentha, awonjezera mtengo wamtengo wapatali mpaka 20%, ndikuphimba pang'ono mtengo wamitengo. Mabungwe amakampani nawonso amagwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri. Kupyolera mu ntchito monga kuphunzitsa ndondomeko ndi kupanga machesi, China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products yathandiza mabizinesi oposa 200 kupeza msika wa EU, kuchepetsa kudalira kwawo msika wa US.
Kusintha kwamitengo m'maiko osiyanasiyana sikungoyesa mtengo wamabizinesi - kuthekera kowongolera komanso kuyesa kupsinjika kwa mayendedwe apadziko lonse lapansi. Pokhala ndi kusintha kwadongosolo kuti agwirizane ndi malamulo atsopano a malonda, pamene chipinda cha tariff arbitrage chikucheperachepera pang'onopang'ono, luso lamakono, mgwirizano wothandizira, ndi mphamvu zapadziko lonse lapansi zidzakhala mpikisano waukulu kuti mabizinesi azitha kudutsa mumkangano wamalonda.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-21-2025 Maonedwe: