Kutshanje, imeko-bume yorhwebo lwehlabathi iphazanyiswe kakhulu luhlengahlengiso olutsha lwerhafu. I-United States izimisele ukuphumeza ngokusesikweni imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha yerhafu ngomhla wesi-5 kweyeDwarha, ibeka irhafu eyongezelelweyo ye-15% - 40% kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphambi komhla wesi-7 kweyeThupha. Amazwe amaninzi abalulekileyo okuvelisa, kuquka uMzantsi Korea, iJapan, neVietnam, aqukiwe kuluhlu lohlengahlengiso. Oku kutshabalalise iinkqubo zokubalwa kweendleko ezisekwe ngamashishini kwaye kwabangela ukothuka kulo lonke uthotho, ukusuka ekuthunyelweni kwezixhobo zasekhaya ezifana neefriji ukuya kwimpahla yokuhambisa impahla elwandle, nto leyo enyanzelisa iinkampani ukuba zihlengahlengise ngokukhawuleza iindlela zazo zokusebenza ngexesha lomgaqo-nkqubo.
I. Amashishini Okuthumela Izinto Kwifriji: Ukunyuka Kwamaxabiso Akhawulezileyo Nokuhlengahlengiswa Kwawo Iiodolo
Njengodidi olumele ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zasekhaya, amashishini efriji ngawona aqala ukuthwala umthwalo wempembelelo yerhafu. Amashishini avela kumazwe ahlukeneyo ajongene nemingeni eyahlukeneyo ngenxa yokwahluka kwendlela yokuvelisa. Kumashishini aseTshayina, i-United States ifake iifriji kuluhlu lwerhafu ye-derivative yentsimbi. Kunye nerhafu eyongezelelweyo ye-15% - 40% ngeli xesha, umthwalo werhafu opheleleyo unyuke kakhulu. Ngo-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwefriji kunye neefriji eTshayina eMelika kufikelele kwi-$3.16 yeebhiliyoni, okubangela i-17.3% yenani lilonke lokuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zasekhaya kolu didi. Ukunyuka ngamanqaku ali-10-pesenti kwirhafu kuya kongeza ngaphezulu kwe-$300 yezigidi kwiindleko zonyaka zeshishini. Ubalo lweshishini eliphambili lubonisa ukuba kwifriji eneminyango emininzi enexabiso lokuthunyelwa kwerhafu ye-$800, xa izinga lerhafu linyuka ukusuka kwi-10% yokuqala ukuya kwi-25%, umthwalo werhafu ngeyunithi nganye uyanda nge-$120, kwaye inzuzo incitshiswa ukusuka kwi-8% ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-3%.
Amashishini aseMzantsi Korea ajongene nengxaki ekhethekileyo "yokuguqulwa kwerhafu." Izinga lerhafu yeefriji eziveliswe eMzantsi Korea kwaye zithunyelwe eMelika yiSamsung kunye neLG linyuke laya kwi-15%, kodwa iifektri zabo eVietnam, ezenza isabelo esikhulu sokuthumela ngaphandle, zijongene nezinga lerhafu eliphezulu le-20%, okwenza kube nzima ukuphepha iindleko ngokudluliselwa kwamandla emveliso kwixesha elifutshane. Okubangela ingxaki ngakumbi kukuba izinto zentsimbi kwiifriji ziphantsi kwerhafu eyongezelelweyo ye-50% yeCandelo 232. Umthwalo werhafu ophindwe kabini unyanzele ukunyuka kwe-15% kumaxabiso okuthengisa kwezinye iimodeli zefriji eziphezulu eMelika, okubangele ukwehla kwe-8% ngenyanga kwii-odolo ezivela kwiivenkile ezinkulu ezifana neWalmart. Amashishini ezixhobo zasekhaya axhaswa yiTshayina eVietnam ajongene noxinzelelo olukhulu ngakumbi. Imodeli yokudluliselwa "yenziwe eTshayina, ebhalwe eVietnam" ayiphumelelanga ngokupheleleyo ngenxa yezinga lerhafu yesohlwayo le-40%. Amashishini afana neFujia Co., Ltd. kuye kwafuneka anyuse umlinganiselo wokuthengwa kwefektri zawo zaseVietnam ukusuka kwi-30% ukuya kwi-60% ukuze ahlangabezane neemfuno zemithetho yemvelaphi.
Amandla omngcipheko - ukumelana kwamashishini amancinci naphakathi abuthathaka ngakumbi. I-OEM yefriji yaseIndiya enikezela ikakhulu iimveliso zaseMelika ezizimeleyo ilahlekelwe ngokupheleleyo kukukhuphisana kwamaxabiso ayo ngenxa yezinga lerhafu eyongezelelweyo ye-40%. Ifumene izaziso zokurhoxiswa kwee-odolo ezintathu ezifikelela kwi-200,000 yeeyunithi, ezibalelwa kwi-12% yamandla ayo emveliso yonyaka. Nangona izinga lerhafu kumashishini aseJapan liyi-25% kuphela, kunye nempembelelo yokwehla kwexabiso le-yen, inzuzo yokuthumela ngaphandle iye yancipha ngakumbi. I-Panasonic iceba ukudlulisela inxalenye yamandla ayo emveliso yefriji ephezulu eMexico ukuze ifumane ukhetho lwerhafu.
II. Imarike yoThutho lwaseLwandle: Utshintsho olunobundlobongela phakathi kokunyuka kwexesha elifutshane kunye noxinzelelo lwexesha elide
Ukutshintshana “kokuhamba ngokukhawuleza” kunye “nokulinda – uze ubone ixesha” okubangelwa yimigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu kubangele ukuba imakethi yokuthunyelwa kwenqanawa yaselwandle ingazinzi kakhulu. Ukuze kuthintelwe izinga lerhafu elidala ngaphambi komhla wokugqibela wokuthunyelwa kwenqanawa nge-7 ka-Agasti, amashishini akhuphe ii-odolo ngamandla, nto leyo ekhokelele kwimeko “yokungabikho kwendawo ekhoyo” kwiindlela eziya entshona ye-United States. Iinkampani zokuthumela imithwalo ezifana neMatson kunye neHapag – Lloyd zinyuse amaxabiso emithwalo ngokulandelelana. Intlawulo eyongezelelweyo yesikhongozeli esingangeenyawo ezingama-40 inyuke yaya kuthi ga kwi-$3,000, kwaye izinga lemithwalo kwindlela esuka eTianjin ukuya entshona ye-United States linyuke ngaphezulu kwe-11% ngeveki enye.
Ngaphantsi kwesi sikhundla sexesha elifutshane, kukho amaxhala afihlakeleyo afihlakeleyo. Umzekelo weenkampani zokuthutha ngenqanawa wokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla awuzinzi. Nje ukuba amaxabiso amatsha aqale ukusebenza nge-5 ka-Okthobha, imakethi iya kungena kwixesha lokupholisa imfuno. I-China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products iqikelela ukuba emva kokuphunyezwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo emitsha, inani leempahla ezithuthwa kwiindlela ezivela eTshayina ukuya entshona ye-United States zezixhobo zasekhaya liza kuncipha nge-12% - 15%. Ngelo xesha, iinkampani zokuthutha ngenqanawa zinokujongana nemingcipheko yokwanda kwamazinga okungabikho kweekhonteyina kunye nokwehla kwamazinga empahla.
Okubi ngakumbi, amashishini aqala ukulungisa iindlela zawo zothutho ukuze kuncitshiswe iindleko zerhafu. Ii-odolo zokuthumela ngqo ezivela eVietnam ukuya eMelika zinciphile, ngelixa uthutho olunqumla imida oludlula eMexico lunyuke ngama-20%, nto leyo enyanzelisa iinkampani zokuthumela ukuba zicwangcise kwakhona uthungelwano lwazo lweendlela. Iindleko ezongezelelweyo zokucwangcisa ekugqibeleni ziya kudluliselwa kumashishini.
Ukungaqiniseki kokuhamba kwexesha kwezothutho kwenza ukuba amashishini axhalabe ngakumbi. Lo mgaqo-nkqubo uthi iimpahla ezingakasuswa ukuze zithunyelwe kwirhafu ngaphambi komhla wesi-5 kweyeDwarha ziya kuhlawuliswa irhafu kwakhona, kwaye umjikelo oqhelekileyo wokususwa kwerhafu kwizibuko zasentshona ye-US wolulwe ukusuka kwiintsuku ezi-3 ukuya kwiintsuku ezi-7. Amanye amashishini amkele icebo "lokwahlulahlula iikhonteyina aze afike ngamanani amaninzi," ehlulahlula lonke iqela lee-odolo libe zikhonteyina ezincinci ezininzi ezineeyunithi ezingaphantsi kwama-50 nganye. Nangona oku kwandisa iindleko zokusebenza kwezothutho ngama-30%, kunokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kokususwa kwerhafu kwaye kunciphise umngcipheko wokungafiki umhla wokugqibela.
III. Ukuqhutywa kweTyathanga leShishini eliPheleleyo: Iimpendulo zeTyathanga ezivela kwiCandelo ukuya kwiMarike yeTerminal
Impembelelo yerhafu idlule kwinqanaba lokwenziwa kwemveliso egqityiweyo kwaye iyaqhubeka nokusasazeka ukuya kumashishini aphezulu nasezantsi. Amashishini avelisa ii-evaporators, inxalenye ephambili yeefriji, ngawona aqala ukuva uxinzelelo. Ukuze ajongane nerhafu eyongezelelweyo ye-15%, iSanhua Group yaseMzantsi Korea inciphise ixabiso lokuthenga imibhobho ye-copper-aluminium nge-5%, nto leyo enyanzelisa abathengisi baseTshayina ukuba banciphise iindleko ngokutshintsha izinto.
Amashishini e-compressor eIndiya akwingxaki: ukuthenga intsimbi yasekuhlaleni ukuze kuhlangatyezwane neemfuno zemithetho yokuvela kwayo eMelika kunyusa iindleko nge-12%; ukuba ithengwe evela eTshayina, ijongene noxinzelelo oluphindwe kabini lweerhafu zecandelo kunye neerhafu zenqanaba lemveliso.
Utshintsho kwimfuno kwimarike yesiphelo sendlela lwenze uthumelo olubuyela umva. Ukuze kuthintelwe iingozi zempahla, abathengisi base-US banciphise umjikelo we-odolo ukusuka kwiinyanga ezi-3 ukuya kwinyanga e-1 kwaye bafuna amashishini ukuba abe nokukwazi "ukuhanjiswa okuncinci, okukhawulezayo." Oku kunyanzele amashishini afana neHaier ukuba aseke iindawo zokugcina impahla ezibophelelweyo eLos Angeles kunye neemodeli zefriji eziphambili ngaphambi kokugcina impahla. Nangona iindleko zokugcina impahla zonyuke nge-8%, ixesha lokuhanjiswa linokwehliswa ukusuka kwiintsuku ezingama-45 ukuya kwiintsuku ezi-7. Ezinye iimpawu ezincinci neziphakathi zikhethe ukurhoxa kwimarike yase-US kwaye ziguqukele kwimimandla enerhafu ezinzileyo, efana neYurophu kunye ne-Southeast Asia. Kwikota yesibini ka-2025, ukuthunyelwa kweefriji zaseVietnam eYurophu kunyuke nge-22% unyaka nonyaka.
Ubunzima bale migaqo-nkqubo bukwabangele umngcipheko wokuthobela imithetho. I-US Customs iqinise ukuqinisekiswa "kotshintsho olukhulu." Kufunyaniswe ukuba ishishini "linemvelaphi yobuxoki" kuba umzi-mveliso walo waseVietnam wenza kuphela ukuhlanganiswa okulula kwaye izinto eziphambili zivela eTshayina. Ngenxa yoko, iimpahla zalo zabanjwa, kwaye lahlawuliswa isohlwayo esiphindwe kathathu kunerhafu. Oku kukhuthaze amashishini ukuba atyale imali eninzi ekusekeni iinkqubo zokuthobela imithetho. Kwishishini elinye, iindleko zokuhlola izatifikethi zemvelaphi yodwa zinyuke nge-1.5% yengeniso yalo yonyaka.
IV. Iimpendulo Ezininzi Zeenkampani kunye Nokwakhiwa Kabutsha Kwezakhono
UNenwell uthe xa kujongwe isiphepho serhafu, yakha imiqobo yomngcipheko - ukumelana notshintsho kumandla emveliso, ukulungiswa kweendleko, kunye nokwahlukahluka kwemarike. Ngokuphathelele uyilo lwamandla emveliso, imodeli ye-"Southeast Asia + the Americas" dual - hub ithatha imo kancinci kancinci. Ukuthatha izixhobo zefriji njengomzekelo, ikhonza imakethi yase-US ngexabiso lerhafu elikhethekileyo le-10% kwaye, kwangaxeshanye, ifuna unyango lwerhafu olungenanto phantsi kweSivumelwano sase-United States - Mexico - Canada, okunciphisa umngcipheko wotyalo-mali lwe-asethi oluzinzileyo ngama-60%.
Ukuqinisa ulawulo lweendleko ukuze kuphuculwe nako kuyinkalo ebalulekileyo. Ngokuphucula inkqubo yemveliso, umxholo wentsimbi kwiifriji uncitshisiwe ukusuka kwi-28% ukuya kwi-22%, nto leyo enciphisa isiseko sokuhlawula iirhafu kwizinto eziphuma kwintsimbi. I-Lexy Electric yonyuse umgangatho wokwenziwa kwezinto ngokuzenzekelayo kumzi-mveliso wayo waseVietnam, inciphisa iindleko zomsebenzi weyunithi nge-18% kwaye inciphisa uxinzelelo lwerhafu.
Isicwangciso sokwahlukahlukana kweemarike sibonise iziphumo zokuqala. Amashishini kufuneka andise imizamo yokuhlola iimarike eMbindi naseMpuma Yurophu nakuMzantsi-mpuma Asia. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ePoland kunyuke ngama-35%; amashishini aseMzantsi Korea agxile kwimarike ephezulu. Ngokuxhobisa iifriji ngetekhnoloji yokulawula ubushushu ekrelekrele, anyuse indawo yexabiso leprimiyamu ukuya kuma-20%, egubungela ngokuyinxenye iindleko zerhafu. Imibutho yezoshishino nayo idlala indima ebalulekileyo. Ngeenkonzo ezinje ngoqeqesho lomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokwenza imiboniso, iChamber of Commerce yaseTshayina yokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle oomatshini kunye neemveliso ze-elektroniki incede amashishini angaphezu kwama-200 ukuba afumane ukufikelela kwimarike ye-EU, nto leyo enciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwawo kwimarike yase-US.
Uhlengahlengiso lweerhafu kumazwe ahlukeneyo aluvavanyi nje kuphela amandla okulawula iindleko zamashishini kodwa lukwasebenza njengovavanyo loxinzelelo lokuqina kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkonzo kwihlabathi liphela. Ngokuthatha utshintsho olucwangcisiweyo ukuze kuhlengahlengiswe imithetho emitsha yorhwebo, njengoko indawo yokulungiswa kwerhafu incipha kancinci kancinci, ubugcisa obutsha, intsebenziswano yekhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkonzo, kunye nobuchule bokusebenza kwihlabathi liphela ekugqibeleni ziya kuba lukhuphiswano oluphambili lwamashishini ukuze adlule kwinkungu yorhwebo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Okthobha-21-2025 Imbono: