Kutshanje, imeko yorhwebo yehlabathi iphazamiseke kakhulu ngumjikelo omtsha wohlengahlengiso lweerhafu. I-United States imiselwe ukuphumeza ngokusemthethweni imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha yerhafu ngo-Oktobha 5, ibeka imisebenzi eyongezelelweyo ye-15% - 40% kwiimpahla ezithunyelwe ngaphambi kwe-7 Agasti. Oku konakalise iinkqubo zogcino-ngxelo lweendleko zamashishini kwaye kubangele izothuso kulo lonke ikhonkco, ukusuka ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe izixhobo zasekhaya ezifana nezikhenkcezisi ukuya kulungiselelo lwaselwandle, kunyanzele iinkampani ukuba zihlengahlengise ngokungxamisekileyo iingqiqo zazo zokusebenza ngexesha lesithinteli somgaqo-nkqubo.
I. AmaShishini aThumela ngaphandle eFrijini: Ukucudisa ngokuphindiweyo kweeNdleko ezibukhali kunye noLungiselelo ngokutsha.
Njengodidi olumele ukuthunyelwa kwempahla yendlu ngaphandle, amashishini efriji ngawokuqala athwele ubunzima befuthe leentlawulo. Amashishini asuka kumazwe ahlukeneyo ajongene nemingeni eyahluka-hlukeneyo ngenxa yomahluko kubume bemveliso. Kumashishini aseTshayina, iUnited States ifake iifriji kuluhlu lweerhafu eziphuma kwintsimbi. Xa kudityaniswa ne-15% - 40% yerhafu eyongezelelweyo ngeli xesha, umthwalo werhafu obanzi unyuke kakhulu. Ngo-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwezikhenkcezisi kunye nezikhenkcezisi e-United States zifikelele kwi-3.16 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, nto leyo ethatha i-17.3% yomthamo othunyelwa ngaphandle kolu didi. Rhoqo nge-10 - ipesenti - ukunyuka kwamanqaku kwiirhafu kuya kongeza ngaphezulu kwe-300 yezigidi zeedola kwiindleko zonyaka zeshishini. Ubalo lweshishini elikhokelayo libonisa ukuba kwifriji yefriji eninzi kunye nexabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-800 yeedola, xa intlawulo yerhafu inyuka ukusuka kwi-10% yasekuqaleni ukuya kwi-25%, umthwalo werhafu kwiyunithi nganye inyuka nge-120 yeedola, kwaye ingeniso yenzuzo incinyiwe ukusuka kwi-8% ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-3%.
Amashishini aseMzantsi Korea adibana nengxaki ekhethekileyo "yokunyuswa kwerhafu." Ixabiso lentlawulo yeefriji eziveliswe eMzantsi Korea kwaye zithunyelwa eUnited States yi-Samsung kunye ne-LG iye yanda ukuya kwi-15%, kodwa iifektri zabo eVietnam, ezithatha isabelo esikhulu sokuthengisa ngaphandle, zijongene nexabiso eliphezulu le-20% yentlawulo, okwenza kube nzima ukuphepha iindleko ngokugqithiswa kwamandla emveliso kwixesha elifutshane. Yintoni enzima ngakumbi kukuba amacandelo ensimbi kwiifriji axhomekeke kwi-50% eyongezelelweyo yeCandelo le-232 yentlawulo ekhethekileyo. Umthwalo werhafu ophindwe kabini unyanzelise ukunyuka kwe-15% kumaxabiso okuthengisa kwezinye iimodeli eziphezulu zefriji e-United States, okukhokelela kwi-8% yenyanga - kwi-nyanga yehla kwii-odolo ezivela kwiivenkile ezinkulu ezifana ne-Walmart. Amashishini aseTshayina-afumana inkxaso-mali ekhaya eVietnam ajongene noxinzelelo olukhulu. Imodeli yothutho "eveliswe eChina, ebhalwe eVietnam" ayiphumelelanga ngokupheleleyo ngenxa ye-40% yexabiso lentlawulo yesohlwayo. Amashishini afana ne-Fujia Co., Ltd. kuye kwafuneka ukuba anyuse umlinganiselo wokuthengwa kwendawo yeefektri zabo zaseVietnam ukusuka kwi-30% ukuya kwi-60% ukuhlangabezana nemithetho yeemfuno zemvelaphi.
Umngcipheko - amandla okuxhathisa amashishini amancinci naphakathi abuthathaka ngakumbi. I-OEM yesikhenkcezisi sase-Indiya i-OEM enikezela ngeempawu ze-niche zaseMelika ilahlekelwe ngokupheleleyo kukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso ngenxa ye-40% yomrhumo owongezelelweyo. Ifumene izaziso zokurhoxiswa kwii-odolo ezintathu ezipheleleyo ze-200,000 iiyunithi, ezibalelwa kwi-12% yomthamo wayo wonyaka wemveliso. Nangona izinga lentlawulo kumashishini aseJapan lingama-25% kuphela, kudityaniswa nefuthe lokuhla kwexabiso leyen, iingeniso zokuthumela ngaphandle ziye zonakaliswa ngakumbi. I-Panasonic icwangcise ukudlulisela inxalenye yezinga eliphezulu lokuvelisa ifriji e-Mexico ukuze ifumane ukhetho lwamaxabiso.
II. Imakethi yokuThumela eLwandle: Uguquguquko olunobundlobongela phakathi kweXesha eliFutshane-kwixesha leBooms kunye noxinzelelo lwexesha elide
Ukutshintshana "okungxamisekileyo - ukuhamba ngenqanawa" kunye "nokulinda - kunye - nokubona ixesha" okubangelwe yimigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu kuphose imarike yeenqanawa zaselwandle ekuguquguqukeni okugqithisileyo. Ukuvala umyinge werhafu endala phambi komhla wokugqibela wokuthumela ngenqanawa nge-7 ka-Agasti, amashishini akhupha iiodolo kakhulu, ekhokelela kwimeko “yokungabikho ndawo ikhoyo” kwiindlela eziya entshona yeUnited States. Iinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa ezinje ngoMatson kunye neHapag-Lloyd ziye zanyusa ngokulandelelana amaxabiso othutho. Intlawulo eyongezelelweyo ye-40 - i-container yeenyawo inyuke yaya kwi-3,000 yeedola, kwaye isantya somthwalo kwindlela esuka e-Tianjin ukuya entshona ye-United States inyuke ngaphezu kwe-11% kwiveki enye.
Ngaphantsi kweli xesha lifutshane lempumelelo ifihla iinkxalabo ezifihlakeleyo. Imodeli yeenkampani ezithumela ngenqanawa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso omthwalo ayizinzanga. Nje ukuba amaxabiso amatsha aqalise ukusebenza ngo-Okthobha 5, imarike iya kungena kwixesha lemfuno yokupholisa. I-China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products iqikelela ukuba emva kokuphunyezwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo emitsha, umthamo weempahla ezithuthwa kwiindlela ezisuka e-China ukuya entshona ye-United States kwizixhobo zasekhaya ziya kuncipha nge-12% - 15%. Ngelo xesha, iinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa zinokujongana nemingcipheko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezithuba zesikhongozeli kunye nokuhla kwamaxabiso omthwalo.
Ngokuqatha ngakumbi, amashishini aqalisa ukuhlengahlengisa iindlela zabo zolungiselelo ukunciphisa iindleko zerhafu. Imiyalelo yokuthumela ngokuthe ngqo ukusuka eVietnam ukuya eUnited States iyancipha, ngelixa ukuwela umda wezothutho ngeMexico kuye kwanda nge-20%, ukunyanzela iinkampani zokuthutha ukuba ziphinde zicwangcise uthungelwano lwendlela yazo. Iindleko ezongezelelweyo zokucwangcisa ziya kuthi ekugqibeleni zigqithiselwe kumashishini.
Ukungaqiniseki kokufika ngexesha lolungiselelo kwandisa ngakumbi inkxalabo yamashishini. Umgaqo-nkqubo uchaza ukuba iimpahla ezingavunyelwanga kwi-customs ngaphambi kwe-5 ka-Oktobha ziya kuhlawuliswa irhafu, kwaye umjikelo wokucocwa kwe-custosum kwi-ports yasentshona yase-US yandisiwe ukusuka kwiintsuku ze-3 ukuya kwiintsuku ze-7. Amanye amashishini amkele isicwangciso-qhinga "sokwahlula izikhongozeli kunye nokufika kwiibhetshi," ukwahlula ibhetshi yee-odolo kwizikhongozeli ezincinci ezininzi ezineeyunithi ezingaphantsi kwama-50 inye. Nangona oku kwandisa iindleko zokusebenza kwempahla nge-30%, kunokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kokukhutshwa kwempahla kunye nokunciphisa umngcipheko wokuphosakela umhla wokugqibela.
III. Ngokugcweleyo - Ukuqhutywa kweKhonkco loShishino: Iintshukumo zekhonkco ukusuka kuMacandelo ukuya kwiMarike yeSitena
Impembelelo yoluhlu lweerhafu ingene ngaphaya kwenqanaba lokwenziwa kwemveliso egqityiweyo kwaye iyaqhubeka ukusasazeka kumashishini anyukayo nasezantsi. Amashishini avelisa izikhenkcezisi, eyona nxalenye iphambili yeefriji, ibe ngawokuqala ukuva uxinzelelo. Ukujamelana ne-15% yerhafu eyongezelelweyo, iQela le-South Korea le-Sanhua liye lanciphisa ixabiso lokuthengwa kobhedu - imibhobho edibeneyo ye-aluminium nge-5%, inyanzelisa abanikezeli baseTshayina ukuba banciphise iindleko ngokufaka izinto eziphathekayo.
Amashishini eCompressor eIndiya akwingxaki: ukuthenga intsimbi yendawo ukuhlangabezana nemithetho yeemfuno zemvelaphi e-United States kwandisa iindleko nge-12%; ukuba zithengwe zisuka e-China, zijongene nokucudiswa kabini koluhlu lweerhafu kunye nemveliso - umgangatho weerhafu.
Utshintsho kwimfuno kwimakethi ye-terminal yenze i-reverse transmission. Ukunqanda umngcipheko we-inventri, abathengisi baseMelika bawunqumle umjikelo woku-odola ukusuka kwiinyanga ezi-3 ukuya kwinyanga e-1 kwaye bafuna ukuba amashishini abe namandla okuhambisa "ibhetshi encinci, ekhawulezayo." Oku kunyanzelise amashishini afana noHaier ukuba aseke iindawo zokugcina iimpahla ezibotshelelweyo eLos Angeles kunye neemodeli ezingundoqo zesikhenkcisi kwangaphambili. Nangona iindleko zokugcina ziye zanda nge-8%, ixesha lokuhambisa lingancitshiswa ukusuka kwiintsuku ze-45 ukuya kwiintsuku ze-7. Ezinye iibrendi ezincinci neziphakathi zikhethe ukurhoxa kwimakethi yase-US kwaye zijike ziye kwimimandla enamaxabiso azinzileyo, njengeYurophu kunye ne-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia. Kwikota yesibini ka-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwefriji yaseVietnam ukuya eYurophu kunyuke nge-22% ngonyaka-ngonyaka.
Ukuntsokotha kwemigaqo-nkqubo nako kubangele imingcipheko yokuthotyelwa. I-US Customs yomeleze ukuqinisekiswa "kwenguqu enkulu." Ishishini lafunyaniswa "linemvelaphi yobuxoki" kuba umzi-mveliso walo waseVietnam uqhube nje indibano elula kwaye ezona zinto ziphambili zafunyanwa eTshayina. Ngenxa yoko, iimpahla zayo zathinjwa, kwaye ijongene nesohlwayo esiphindwe kathathu kunexabiso lentlawulo. Oku kubangele ukuba amashishini atyale imali eninzi ekusekeni iinkqubo zokuthobela. Kwishishini elinye, iindleko zophicotho lwezatifikethi zemvelaphi yodwa zonyuke nge-1.5% yengeniso yalo yonyaka.
IV. Iimpendulo zamaShishini aManinzi kunye noLwakhiwo ngokutsha lweZakhono
UNenwell uchaze ukuba ebusweni besivunguvungu somrhumo, kukwakha umngcipheko - imiqobo yokuchasa ngohlengahlengiso lwesakhono semveliso, ukuphuculwa kweendleko, kunye nokwahluka kweemarike. Ngokubhekiselele kwisakhiwo somthamo wemveliso, i-"Southeast Asia + the Americas" imodeli ye-hub ihamba ngokuthe ngcembe. Ukuthatha izixhobo zefriji njengomzekelo, ukhonza i-market ye-US kunye ne-10% yexabiso lentlawulo ekhethiweyo kwaye, ngelo xesha, ifuna i-zero - intlawulo yonyango phantsi kwe-United States - i-Mexico - iSivumelwano saseCanada, ukunciphisa umngcipheko we-fixed - utyalo-mali lwe-asethi nge-60%.
Ukugxininisa ulawulo lweendleko ekuphuculeni ikwangumba obalulekileyo. Ngokulungisa inkqubo yokuvelisa, umxholo wensimbi kwiifriji uncitshiswe ukusuka kwi-28% ukuya kwi-22%, ukunciphisa isiseko sokuhlawula iirhafu kwi-derivatives yensimbi. I-Lexy Electric iye yandisa inqanaba lokuzenzekelayo kwi-factory yayo yaseVietnam, ukunciphisa iindleko zomsebenzi weyunithi nge-18% kunye nokunciphisa uxinzelelo lwerhafu.
Isicwangciso sokwahluka kweemarike sibonise iziphumo zokuqala. Amashishini kufuneka andise iinzame zokuphonononga iimarike kuMbindi naseMpuma Yurophu nakuMzantsi-mpuma Asia. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ePoland kwanda nge-35%; Amashishini aseMzantsi Korea agxile kwimakethi ephezulu. Ngokuxhobisa iifriji ngeteknoloji yokulawula ubushushu obukrelekrele, baye bandisa indawo yeprimiyamu yexabiso ukuya kwi-20%, ngokuyinxenye bahlawule iindleko zentlawulo. Imibutho yoshishino nayo inendima ebalulekileyo. Ngeenkonzo ezifana noqeqesho lomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nomboniso wokufanisa, i-China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products incede amashishini angaphezu kwama-200 ukuba afikelele kwimarike ye-EU, ukunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwabo kwimarike yase-US.
Uhlengahlengiso lweerhafu kumazwe ahlukeneyo aluvavanyi kuphela iindleko zamashishini - amandla okulawula kodwa lukwasebenza njengovavanyo loxinzelelo lokomelela konikezelo lwehlabathi jikelele. Ngokwenza utshintsho olucwangcisiweyo lokuziqhelanisa nemithetho emitsha yorhwebo, njengoko igumbi lokuhlawula arbitrage lincipha ngokuthe ngcembe, ukuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe, intsebenziswano yekhonkco lokubonelela, kunye nobuchule bokusebenza behlabathi ekugqibeleni kuya kuba lukhuphiswano olungundoqo lwamashishini ukuba ahambe kwinkungu yorhwebo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-21-2025 Iimbono: